Scientific research shows clearly that global environmental changes are already affecting human health. More people are dying of heat stress, severe drought is causing widespread hunger, and some infectious diseases are spreading to previously uninfected areas, to mention just a few examples. While these problems are already serious ones, health impacts are expected to escalate further in the future if global environmental changes continue at their current pace.
These health impacts are the result of both direct effects, for example through heat stress or flooding, and indirect effects, for example through diminishing food yields and the spread of infectious diseases, and through migration and conflict. Such indirect effects probably affect more people than direct effects, but are much more difficult to investigate because of longer causal chains. Nevertheless, a better understanding of these indirect effects, particularly those through nutrition and infection, is essential for the development of effective countermeasures.
Not all countries will be equally affected. High-income countries, like the Netherlands, will probably be able to manage the health effects of global environmental change in the short and medium term, although they will need to develop and implement adaptation plans, for instance to reduce the impact of heat waves or floods. Much greater health risks threaten the Global South, which is more vulnerable to these environmental changes and whose populations often lack the resources necessary for taking countermeasures. Because the prosperity of richer countries is based on their larger ecological footprint over many centuries, however, they are largely responsible for environmental changes elsewhere in the world and their health consequences.
Our knowledge of the health effects of global environmental changes varies. We know more about the health effects of climate change and the global pollution of air, water and soil than about the health effects of biodiversity loss and disruption of the nitrogen cycle. In the case of biodiversity loss, for example, empirical evidence is particularly scarce. Yet it is clear that human health depends in part on
nature’s ‘ecosystem services’, including the purification of water and air, support for food production and management of infectious diseases. These will come under increasing pressure when biodiversity declines.
Abating the causes of global environmental changes by effective ‘mitigation’ policies is crucial to preventing their health impacts. Because these changes are ultimately driven by rising human population numbers and increasing production and consumption per capita, it is worrying that both are expected to keep growing in the short and medium term. It is an open question whether technological adaptations, such as the transition to renewable energy, can turn the tide or whether more drastic changes are necessary,
such as a contraction of material production and consumption (‘degrowth’).
In either case, transformative changes will be necessary to the energy supply, transportation, industry, food production and other core sectors. For some, i.e., the transformation of the energy system, technological solutions are in sight, raising hopes that we can halt some of the global environmental changes in time. Yet policymakers, private companies, public institutions and individual citizens will need to fundamentally change their policies and behaviours to achieve these transformative changes. They will need to overcome ingrained habits, vested interests and other major barriers.
Health care also has a substantial ecological footprint, and contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and other global environmental changes. Like other sectors, it will have to switch to more sustainable ways of delivering its services. In addition, health care has an important role to play in adaptation, for example when it comes to combating infectious diseases induced by climate change.